If the predictions of Arthur Hayes, CEO of Bitmex, are to be believed, we could be in for a bearish crypto market for the coming 18 months. Bitmex is currently the world’s largest bitcoin derivatives trading platform, so when the head of such a company makes a bold proclamation as this, one is immediately forced to pay attention.
Over the course of the past 12 months, Bitcoin’s value has dropped from a staggering $20K to around $6,300. Not only that, if this performance persits, 2018 could potentially be one of the worst years for BTC in terms of its “relative percentage decline”.
In an interview with a respected media outlet, Hayes was noted as saying:
“My view is the volatility environment that exists right now could persist for another 12 to 18 months, the flatness. I’m just basing it off my previous experience. I started in bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.”
Hayes has previously worked for leading financial institutions such as the CitiGroup as well as Deutsche Bank. He co-founded BitMEX in 2014 so as to provide crypto enthusiasts with a means of procuring and trading peer-to-peer bitcoin derivative products.
Other Analysts Do Not Concur With Hayes’ Predictions
While the BitMEX top-man continues to remain bearish on Bitcoin’s future prospects, there are those individuals such as Will Warren, the cofounder of decentralised crypto exchange 0x, who believe that the ongoing pressure is just “part of a periodic cycle” that is no different from the ones that have been observed since the start of 2011. Further elaborating on the matter, Warren said that:
“The market is blowing off some steam right now,” he added. “I think the market is probably going through some healthy consolidation but I do believe the long-term trend will be greater adoption of bitcoin and similar technologies.”
Echoing a similar sentiment, Mati Greenspan of eToro too said:
“In 2016 the gains started very gradually until it snowballed. Now that awareness and education have skyrocketed, I have a feeling that it’s going to happen a lot quicker the next time.”
Even though the existing market conditions have not been hospitable for Bitcoin, trading platforms such as BitMEX are still seeing a daily trade on contracts worth a notional $1bn each day. If that wasn’t enough, earlier in 2018, the firm even recorded its largest financial score when it facilitated $8.5bn worth of written contracts in a single day.